Will @levifinkelstein resolve the linked market incorrectly or in a misleading way?
13
492
290
Dec 31
25%
chance

Levi(na) Finkelstein created the market below:
/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th

This market was created despite having similar resolution criteria to Ammon Lam's market "Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2025?" from multiple months earlier, and Levi(na) is currently holding the largest YES position.

This resolves YES if Levi(na) resolves their market based on anything but the common sense definition of "the moon" and "walk on by". If there is not sufficient evidence that someone walked on the moon by the end of 2024, but after market creation, and Levi(na)'s market still resolves YES, this will also resolve YES. If the reverse is true, and Levi(na) resolves NO despite there being sufficient evidence of that, this market will resolve YES.

For example, if Levi(na) posts a video of someone walking on a piece of paper with "the moon" written on it, and resolves the market YES based on it, then this market will also resolve YES.

If Levi(na) says "The moon landing in 1969 happened before 2025 so that counts" and resolves the market YES based on that, this will also resolve YES because that is misleading (and contradictory to the market's description).

If the market is resolved, it is assumed Levi(na) is the one who did it. If they protest this and there is sufficient evidence that someone else did it, then this will resolve NO.

If Levi(na) abides by the common sense definition of "the moon" and "walk on by the end of 2024" when resolving their market, this will resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

I think this can resolve no because he was just banned today lol. Edit: the ban likely is temporary

predicts NO

@GabeGarboden Bans also don't prevent creators from resolving their markets, only from commenting.

predicts NO

@JosephNoonan Gotcha, thanks

predicts NO

@GabeGarboden Oh, and also creation of new markets, I think

bought Ṁ10 of NO

There is a slight difference in resolution criteria, since Levi's market would still resolve YES if it was someone other than NASA.

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