Will we know who won the Presidential Election 24 hours after?
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36
แน€2740
Jan 1
82%
chance

i.e. 24 hours after first poll closings.

This will resolve based generally on prediction markets, and whether they are >95% for one candidate. In the event of slightly different prices, I will make a judgement call. I will not bet in this market.

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How would you classify 2020?

Saturday November 7th was when it was called by major news networks but I think didn't cross 90% on betting market till well after.

When (if at all) between Tuesday November 3rd and Saturday November 7th, did we know?

I would argue the true probability was over 95% on November 4th 17:58 once MI and WI went to Biden while Predictit had 87%

https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/calling-the-2020-presidential-race-state-by-state

bought แน€100 YES

@traders also check out this similar market with options for specific timing of when the election can be called based on prediction markets