Before Polls Close, Election Day or Earlier

Compared to network projections, market odds converge faster to the eventual winner.

I will resolve the question to the Eastern time when the favored candidate begins to be priced at above 95% likely to win on either Manifold OR Polymarket, and sustained on average for another 6 hours.

 I will cross-check various platforms and reliable sources to confirm that the pricing is not an anomaly if there are technical issues or market manipulation.

See a fun chart below for what took place in 2016 vs 2020.