Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-risk has been developed by December 31st, 2023?
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1.1kṀ15k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

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As of now, this is a NO. I've tried contacting him and he seems to really not want to make any declarative statements on the matter, which based on the title means that he has not agreed. I'll give a grace period of 24 hours for anyone to present evidence that could interfere with a NO resolution.

Whether or not you agree with their approach and conclusions, we finally have a model of some of these claims.

In typical Cowen fashion, of course, he remains ambiguous about what he means by "these claims". But it's enough for me to sell my NO position.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/natural-selection-of-artificial-intelligence%e2%88%97.html?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=natural-selection-of-artificial-intelligence%25e2%2588%2597

predictedYES

@czrobertson interesting

@SemioticRivalry Is this sufficient to resolve yes, and if not, why not?

predictedYES

@MartinRandall I don't think it's clear enough. It's classic Cowen. I'll email him after market close to try to get a very straight answer.

predictedYES

@SemioticRivalry I wish you luck. As an FYI, he stopped responding to me in a substantial way after I mentioned the precursor market to this.

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