Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-risk has been developed by December 31st, 2023?
Jan 1

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czrobertson avatar
Colin Z. Robertsonsold Ṁ716 of NO

Whether or not you agree with their approach and conclusions, we finally have a model of some of these claims.

In typical Cowen fashion, of course, he remains ambiguous about what he means by "these claims". But it's enough for me to sell my NO position.


SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts YES

@czrobertson interesting

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

@SemioticRivalry Is this sufficient to resolve yes, and if not, why not?

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts YES

@MartinRandall I don't think it's clear enough. It's classic Cowen. I'll email him after market close to try to get a very straight answer.

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineau bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%
RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineaupredicts YES

@SemioticRivalry I wish you luck. As an FYI, he stopped responding to me in a substantial way after I mentioned the precursor market to this.