Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-risk has been developed by December 31st, 2023?
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Jan 1
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chance
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Payout if YES
Ṁ101 +916.2%
New probability
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Get Ṁ500 play money
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Colin Z. Robertsonsold Ṁ716 of NO
Whether or not you agree with their approach and conclusions, we finally have a model of some of these claims.
In typical Cowen fashion, of course, he remains ambiguous about what he means by "these claims". But it's enough for me to sell my NO position.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/natural-selection-of-artificial-intelligence%e2%88%97.html?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=natural-selection-of-artificial-intelligence%25e2%2588%2597
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES
@SemioticRivalry Is this sufficient to resolve yes, and if not, why not?
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts YES
@MartinRandall I don't think it's clear enough. It's classic Cowen. I'll email him after market close to try to get a very straight answer.
Robert Cousineaupredicts YES
@SemioticRivalry I wish you luck. As an FYI, he stopped responding to me in a substantial way after I mentioned the precursor market to this.
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