I feel like p(Hegseth leaves before May) is at least 20%, so this market seems very underpriced.

@AnonymousFlounder you mean overpriced?

@MachiNi I meant that "no" is underpriced, so yes is overpriced, yup

I had the AI find the declarative name of this market: Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense

Nothing ever happens.

I think pope Francis dying counts as a happening

@Sebastianus That's not one of the five possible events listed for this market though.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 this for me casts the market's validity into question ; I'd NA it

@GazDownright I thought it was pretty clear from the description what counts.

hesgeth has a high chance of getting tpopled by this time:

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/20/ullyot-pentagon-hegseth-chaos-00300695

@CrypticQccZ Nothing ever happens

@CrypticQccZ Accountability in this administration ESPECIALLY never happens

@Mana I think Hegseth will be fired/forced to resign once it's clear to Trump that he's a political liability. I don't think it will happen by the end of the month though.

As I expected, Trump is still publicly standing behind Hegseth: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hegseth-trump-same-page-after-2nd-signal-chat/story?id=121010785

For the first time, a Republican says Hegseth should be fired:

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/21/don-bacon-pete-hegseth-signal

Was this the month I should have moved to Polymarket?

SK president has now been removed from office.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/03/asia/yoon-impeachment-verdict-south-korea-intl-hnk

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate deals with the US, after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y2nvezdnwo

Informal agreements and humanitarian pauses not sufficient, but rules seem unclear about a wide area agreement like Black Sea as opposed to a complete ceasefire.

@ChristopherRandles it's not a wide agreement. Ukraine doesn't even have a navy. It's the tiniest conceivable military agreement that is nothing more than an a sign of goodwill from Ukraine towards Russia.

yeah, description requires that it pertains to all theaters of conflict, so must apply to sea, air, frontline, energy, everything.