If none of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to Yes. If any of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to no. Copied from the Polymarket and should resolve the same in >99% of circumstances.
https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-before-may
-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire (announcement suffices)
-Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea
-Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense
-Erdoğan resigns or otherwise ceases to be President of Turkey
-Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal (announcement suffices)
For the sake of this market, a ceasefire must pertain to all theaters of fighting between the two parties.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ12,671 | |
| 2 | Ṁ6,028 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5,327 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,047 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,045 |
People are also trading
@SemioticRivalry can you specify when April will end? As in according to what time zone? For the purpose of this question
@SaiVazquez Putin announced a three day unilateral ceasefire. It’s not enough to make the market resolve, I think, but there’s still another couple of days for Ukraine to also agree to a ceasefire.
hesgeth has a high chance of getting tpopled by this time:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/20/ullyot-pentagon-hegseth-chaos-00300695
@Mana I think Hegseth will be fired/forced to resign once it's clear to Trump that he's a political liability. I don't think it will happen by the end of the month though.
As I expected, Trump is still publicly standing behind Hegseth: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hegseth-trump-same-page-after-2nd-signal-chat/story?id=121010785
For the first time, a Republican says Hegseth should be fired:
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/21/don-bacon-pete-hegseth-signal