If none of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to Yes. If any of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to no. Copied from the Polymarket and should resolve the same in >99% of circumstances.
https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-before-may
-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire (announcement suffices)
-Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea
-Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense
-Erdoğan resigns or otherwise ceases to be President of Turkey
-Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal (announcement suffices)
For the sake of this market, a ceasefire must pertain to all theaters of fighting between the two parties.
1,000Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate deals with the US, after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y2nvezdnwo
Informal agreements and humanitarian pauses not sufficient, but rules seem unclear about a wide area agreement like Black Sea as opposed to a complete ceasefire.
@ChristopherRandles it's not a wide agreement. Ukraine doesn't even have a navy. It's the tiniest conceivable military agreement that is nothing more than an a sign of goodwill from Ukraine towards Russia.