If none of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to Yes. If any of these things happen before May, this market will resolve to no. Copied from the Polymarket and should resolve the same in >99% of circumstances.

https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-before-may

-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire (announcement suffices)
-Yoon Suk Yeol is reinstated as President of South Korea
-Pete Hegseth resigns or otherwise ceases to be Secretary of Defense
-Erdoğan resigns or otherwise ceases to be President of Turkey
-Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal (announcement suffices)

For the sake of this market, a ceasefire must pertain to all theaters of fighting between the two parties.