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@Tripping

This can resolve right, the final prediction is out

nevermind

We're at the last polling cycle now; hard to imagine that either Nate or the prediction markets swings dramatically.

@JamesOrr I was wrong.

I have no idea lol but I think Nate will come around

Nate’s a lot more bullish on Trump than others - and that’s been the case in 2016 and 2020 as well.

@nsokolsky But he has not been more bullish relative to prediction/betting markets. In fact, he had been more bullish on the Democratic candidate in every election since 2008 (based on Iowa Electronic Market for 2008 & 2012, and Predictit for 2016 & 2020). That might be because Democrats led the polling average in each election but still there is a pattern here

@PlainBG In the final forecast for 2016, he was more bullish on Trump than betting markets. For example, PredictIt had Trump at 22 cents (and Hillary at 82 cents, so adjusted that's ~21%), while Nate had him at ~29%.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Interesting:

this market is basically a coinflip

2008: Higher

2012: Higher

2016: Similar

2020: Higher

2024: ?

@PlainBG 2016 was lower iirc. Predictit had Hillary around 82%.