Heads I win, tails everyone gets their mana back!

Regrettably, this resolves N/A pursuant to the description. Everybody gets their mana back!

"Resolves N/A If Manchin does not run for Senate." so I don't see why this market moved so much on https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/09/politics/joe-manchin-wont-run-for-reelection/index.html

Joe Manchin won’t run for reelection | CNN Politics

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia will not run for reelection, the moderate Democrat announced on social media Thursday.

@A Presumably people who hadn’t read the market description. They’re not hurting themselves though, since it’ll resolve N/A and return their mana.

Seems like a lot of upside available on YES right now for not much risk.... If Manchin thinks he's going down in flames he obviously doesn't run.

It's funny that I buy a bit of no and get twenty new people trading. Thank you manifold algorithm

Votes <> points. You need votes to win.

@MaybeNotDepends Points meaning percentage points. He's asking if Manchin's opponent will beat him by at least 10% of the total vote.

Conflux is betting yes. Therefore, I will bet yes.

@8 honestly I kinda forgot about the ticket splitting thing. I don’t think my big bets were like terrible but I do regret them a bit I think

I think that if Manchin were going to lose by 10 points, he'd decline to run. So IMO this likely resolves Yes or N/A.

@Conflux yeah

@Joshua that’s possible! various factors here

@Joshua I do think most likely he doesn't run, but my probability that he comes within ten is very low so I'm still willing to buy no. If I had to guess, the median election would be like R+20.

Certainly not impossible for incumbents to kamikaze against hopeless odds, though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Dakota

@SemioticRivalry I do think Manchin is less likely to kamikaze than someone like Heitkamp - he said back in 2018 that he was tired of being a senator, and he’s in his late seventies. I think he’d only run to help Democrats / keep influence over the senate

Do people actually think he'll likely lose by more than 10? He won by 3 in 2018. Sure, that was a wave year, but a 13-point swing is a lot

@Conflux I am confident he will and made this market to get counterparties, but no dice! I'll set a big NO limit at, say, 55% if you're game?

@SemioticRivalry I just realized I was doing math wrong and losing by 10 isn’t a 13 point swing, it’s only like an 8-point swing since 45-55 is losing by 10, which seems a lot more plausible.

Still, I might fill your limit order, gotta think

@Conflux 4k up at 55%. Of course it's looking more and more possible that he doesn't even run and this just N/As, though I would also be willing to bet on margin on MT/OH in that event.

@SemioticRivalry 2018 was like D+8 overall and Manchin won by 3, putting his baseline from that perspective at like -5, and I think conventional wisdom is that it'll be a modestly Democratic year most likely? The big risk here is that he's probably less popular in WV than he was in 2018. However, he's more likely to run for Senate if he thinks he can do well. I think 55% might actually be about right. I'll put YES limit orders at 45 and 50 if you want to fill those.

Some related markets

@Conflux I bought your limits, and I may as well explain my reasoning now.

I think Manchin is much less popular than in 2018 and this cycle is likely to be less Democratic, and he faced a weak candidate in '18, all of which works in my favor. But there's another more important factor, which is that it's a presidential year. Holding everything else constant, you would expect a Democratic incumbent in WV to do about 10% worse in a presidential year than in a midterm, due to the very consistent trend of dramatically less ticket splitting in presidential years. Even if it was a very good D year and he was equally popular, I still think he may lose by around 10.

@SemioticRivalry Hmm, that’s a good point about ticket splitting actually.

Please clarify the resolution criteria? I’m assuming this means that if Joe Manchin wins or loses by less than 10 points, it resolves positively?

@BenjaminShindel Yes, if Manchin wins the race or comes within ten points of the winner it resolves yes. if Manchin loses by more than ten points, resolves no.