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31% chance. Ukraine has been making increasing use of underwater suicide drones to make up for its lack of navy and target Russian naval ships in the Black sea. On 24/05, the Ivan Kurs was targeted by such USV, although Russia claimed its counter-measure proved effective. On 04/08, the landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak was damaged in the port of Novorossiysk by one such drone. However, since the sinking of the Moskva in april of 2022, Ukraine has struggled to actually sink ships rather than damage them. This question resolves YES if a ship operated by the Russian Navy is sunk by Ukraine by 30/09. The attack doesn't have to be done by USVs. For the purpose of this question, small boats such as RHIB do not count. See related question: "Will Ukraine damages another Russian Navy ship by september 30"