Following the mutiny of June 2023, most of Wagner soldier were given a choice between signing up with the MoD or going into exil into Belarus. There are now rumors that Wagner fighter are being evacuated from Belarus following the death of its leader, Prigozhin.
This question will resolve YES if, at any point prior to 2024, Wagner cease to exist or to be officially an independent PMC. (So it becoming a regular army unit would resolve as YES). It resolves as NO otherwise.
I won't be betting on the market to remain as objective as possible.
1,000
3.00@Bbettor So Wagner is into the process of changing name from one German reference to another. From Wagner into African corps.
The new name is directly inspired by the Afrika Korps, the German battalions that fought in northern Africa during the Second World War.
So it NOT becoming a regular army unit .
It’s a rebranding of a private military company, PMC.
By the way, Le Mond is the French equivalent of New York Times.
@Marq It has already been made a unit of the regular army!! The only remaining argument that it still existed was that it is still called Wagner in Africa.
@BTE Wagner was founded with the intention of evading sanctions and reduce traceability, and therefore divided into many subsidiaries. Don’t forget there’s also Wagner in Belarus and Wagner in Syria. And two weeks ago UK added 3 more people to their sanction list supposedly because they had close connection to Wagner.
@BTE The question is specific about the PMC vs regular army question.
And as the article above says Wagner in Africa is NOT going into the regular army…
@Marq The question was cease to exist or become a regular army unit. If there’s no entity by the name Wagner, it has ceased to exist. Its command staff is gone. Its weapons are confiscated, its has ceased paying benefits. Like a corporate bankruptcy, the assets will accrue to someone in the future but that’s not Wagner anymore, not even as a titular holding company. I get that these markets are inherently about splitting hairs but this is pretty clear at this point.
@Bbettor Can you provide any references for the assertions that you made? “Weapons confiscated?” “Command stuff gone?”
On one hand, Putin wants to give the impression that Wagner is gone. On the other hand, regimes in Africa are actually happy with the service they receive from Wagner. The compromise is to change name to another another Nazi reference.
This is described well in the Le Mond article above and in the BBC below.
@Marq It’s all easily found on Google. Most of the command staff was on the plane with Prigozhin. His son was negotiating the handover of assets for security guarantees. The same people under new ownership and a new brand aren’t the old company. I’m not going to bother sourcing all this stuff when it’s easily found, obviously these markets are extremely subjective and it’ll end however the market maker chooses with the facts being a pretty distant secondary consideration since we’re relying on how well-informed the market maker actually is which often seems to be…limited. It’s all Monopoly money, just loses its predictive utility.
BBC News - Why Wagner is winning hearts in the Central African Republic
@jacksonpolack https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/09/how-russia-recruiting-wagner-fighters-continue-war-ukraine
At this point I think the burden of proof should be on those who claim Wagner does still exist.
new Washington post article:
In Wagner Group’s biggest African base, Russia to control mercenaries - The Washington Post (archive.ph)
@BTE I've heard that they go all out during the holidays. They love giving gifts/presents to others. It makes sense if they are looking to take on a 2nd job or take on extra shifts. it makes sense. a lil exra spending money
@BTE I wonder how many had Prigozhin as a reference on their resume. They may have to consider not putting down Wagner in work history
@higherLEVELING They're low level criminals freshly recruited last winter none of them have Prigozhin as a reference, they just need to explain their murder charges.
@WieDan they are model workers. works well in different environments, collaborative - works well with others, multitasker, reliable, ambitious, passionate. HIRED!
cant be low level criminal and have murder charges though