[50M subsidy ] Will the PMC Wagner stop existing before 2024?
closes Dec 31

Following the mutiny of June 2023, most of Wagner soldier were given a choice between signing up with the MoD or going into exil into Belarus. There are now rumors that Wagner fighter are being evacuated from Belarus following the death of its leader, Prigozhin.

This question will resolve YES if, at any point prior to 2024, Wagner cease to exist or to be officially an independent PMC. (So it becoming a regular army unit would resolve as YES). It resolves as NO otherwise.

I won't be betting on the market to remain as objective as possible.

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BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ100 of YES

Why do the Wagner fighters who have been pardoned need other jobs if Wagner isn’t being dissolved??

8 replies
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

obviously it’s being dismantled completely.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts YES

@BTE I've heard that they go all out during the holidays. They love giving gifts/presents to others. It makes sense if they are looking to take on a 2nd job or take on extra shifts. it makes sense. a lil exra spending money

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

@higherLEVELING None of them can get hired anywhere apparently.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts YES

@BTE I wonder how many had Prigozhin as a reference on their resume. They may have to consider not putting down Wagner in work history

WieDan avatar
Wie Danpredicts NO

@higherLEVELING They're low level criminals freshly recruited last winter none of them have Prigozhin as a reference, they just need to explain their murder charges.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts YES

@WieDan they are model workers. works well in different environments, collaborative - works well with others, multitasker, reliable, ambitious, passionate. HIRED!

cant be low level criminal and have murder charges though

WieDan avatar
Wie Danpredicts NO
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES
SebastianWorms avatar
Sebastian Worms
Comment hidden
Kurgan avatar
Kurganbought Ṁ10 of NO

They are very unlikely to be simply dissolved because they are too important in Africa.

1 reply
ChrisMills avatar
Chris Millsbought Ṁ10 of YES

@Kurgan There is a rumor that Andrey Averyanov is forming an organization to take over Wagner's role in Africa, reported by Bellingcat (https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1694421285579731451), so I'd think some of the personnel would just get folded into that.