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Seems pretty unlikely at this point, but looks like there's some resistance activity: https://tvpworld.com/74455670/an-explosive-week-for-russia-siberian-rail-blast-tokmak-hq-destruction

Promising early signs here: https://news.yahoo.com/russians-begin-withdrawal-tokmak-amid-124600013.html

Russians begin withdrawal from Tokmak amid Ukrainian advance on the Zaporizhzhya front

The Ukrainian forces advance on the Zaporizhzhya front is forcing Russian occupiers to withdraw some of their units from Tokmak, the Ukrainian Mayor of Russian-occupied Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said in an interview with Radio Svoboda (RFE/RL) on Oct. 12.

@WiktorMacura No evidence provided whatsoever, not to mention that evacuating civilians from an area exposed to Himars strikes wouldn't indicate anything about the expected outcome of ongoing battles. Sounds like mere propaganda to me.

@AlexandreK Yeah, agree with that -- my position is heavily biased by "hope"

https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-russian-invasion-of-u?r=RGFuaWVsX01D

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date on this Wikipedia page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 24 hour period. I will resolve in line with the Wikipedia editors unless it's clear that this is not in line with the "spirit" of the question. The spirit of the question is about when the armed conflict substantially stops regardless of who controls what territory. A temporary ceasefire does not count. [image]I may change the criteria to clarify questions or fix flaws. I will not bet in this market.

To paraphrase Musashi: “There is rhythm in the abstract; there is a rhythm for achieving your purpose, and a rhythm for not achieving your purpose. A house will collapse, a body will collapse, and an opponent will collapse—all when their time comes and their rhythm is broken.”

https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1702433388249129393?s=20

Seems like the engagement of the 76th slowed Ukraine down.

subsidy is up to 1000M now if you want to update the title

@AndyMartin Wow, very generous of you. Thank you!

Related question aiming to probe whether the ZSU will manage to expand its current breach in the lines short term.

https://manifold.markets/SebastianWorms/100m-subsidy-will-ukraine-retake-th?r=U2ViYXN0aWFuV29ybXM

[100M subsidy] Will Ukraine retake the town of Verbove before September 17.

50% chance. On august 23, the ZSU (Armed forces of Ukraine) retook the town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reaching the first of the so-called Surovikin lines. On august 30, reports came that units of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade were beyong the first line just west of the town of Verbove. [image]This question aims to probe whether the ZSU manages to expand its breach of the Surovikin line. The town of Verbove will be considered liberated if the Verbove high school is held by the ZSU for at least 24 hours before the end of the time period. If it is seized right before the deadline (so short raid do not count), I'll wait to see if they hold it for at least 24 hours. As usual, I will not be betting on my own questions.