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MANIFOLD
Will I graduate from college by Spring 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ25
2027
39%
chance

Market resolves to yes if I complete my degree by Spring 2027. Market resolves to no if I take a leave of absence, drop out, fall behind on my degree, etc.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if I officially complete all academic requirements and graduate with my degree on or before the conclusion of the Spring 2027 academic term (including conferral by June 30, 2027).

This market resolves to NO if:

  • I take a leave of absence, withdraw, or drop out such that I do not finish by Spring 2027.

  • I fall behind on credit requirements and my graduation is delayed past the Spring 2027 semester/quarter.

  • I am enrolled but fail to meet graduation requirements in time for Spring 2027 degree conferral.

Resolution will be determined by my self-report.

Background

The typical undergraduate timeline depends on maintaining continuous full-time enrollment and completing required coursework without prerequisite delays, changes in major, or academic interruptions. Any unforeseen leaves of absence, credit deficits, or scheduling conflicts that push graduation beyond the Spring 2027 term will trigger a NO resolution.

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