Update 2024-Jan-06:
Nobody has replied to my LW post to say they've moved funds. I also tried another brief search but gave up.
Resolving NO.
Update 2023-Dec-31:
I tried a cursory search in Google, using the terms "moved binance site:lesswrong.com". I browsed all results, looking for signs of anyone moving funds off Binance. I did not notice any signs of this.
I then tried a comment on my LW post, asking if anyone knew of anyone who had done this. I will try waiting a few days, in case someone chimes in. I may also try some more searches on LW.
I feel very discouraged and kind of bitter, to be honest! Of all the communities, I did think that community would appreciate the effort more. My impression so far is nobody's decision will be influenced by these markets. But I'll try waiting a few days, and maybe try another search.
Market description and criteria:
I made a LessWrong post and recommended people move funds off of the Binance exchange. Especially so soon after SBF, I feel compelled to let people know.
The problem for me is: I can't tell if anyone will be influenced, enough to pull funds from the exchange. If there were no actual changes in asset allocation or decision making, for me that would actually be very dismaying. Such an outcome would make me reconsider some things Robin Hanson said, about why he couldn't convince any companies to use prediction markets. If any should concretely matter to someone, surely it's crime markets about crypto exchange CEOs!
This year, will literally anyone on LessWrong say they moved money off an exchange, as a result of seeing my market about an exchange's founder/CEO? Doesn't even necessarily have to be Binance/CZ.
Must be from an account that was created before this market. No fabricating please.
1,000
3.00@Eliza First, I tried a cursory search in Google, using the terms "moved binance site:lesswrong.com". I browsed all results, looking for signs of anyone moving funds off Binance. I did not notice any signs of this.
I then tried a comment on my LW post, asking if anyone knew of anyone who had done this. I will try waiting a few days, in case someone chimes in. I may also try some more searches on LW.
I feel very discouraged and kind of bitter, to be honest! Of all the communities, I did think that community would appreciate the effort more. My impression so far is nobody's decision will be influenced by these markets. But I'll try waiting a few days, and maybe try another search.
@ScroogeMcDuck Nobody has replied to my LW post to say they've moved funds. I also tried another brief search but gave up.
Resolving NO.
@Ouroboros Are you someone who made a LessWrong account before 2023-May-22? Did you move money off an exchange as a result of seeing any of my markets?
The main criticism is - people are probably buying NO not because of inside info, but from the general popular sense that binance and tether are corrupt or lying. And the LWers using binance probably already know about that, so the market doesn't tell us much
like: patio11 is the biggest YES holder. He's made his opinion on binance/tether very clear on twitter (and it's fairly well argued), so if I've already read and have some opinion on it ... market isn't interesting really
@jacksonpolack I see, but if they know Binance is lying, does that mean they just don't think it'll put their funds at risk?
@jacksonpolack I see, then would a market more directly about then losing funds, specifically as a result of fraud, convince them? Or would you guess those people are just going to be irrational and won't care anyway?