I have many whistleblower markets, aimed at criminal risk. I plan to make hundreds more, about many powerful people. But that's not worth doing if they eventually get delisted, censored, or removed some other way. Which is possible, given pressure.
Resolves YES if that happens, resolves NO on 2035-Jan-01 if not.
How does this resolve if:
1) Manifold delists or removes a portion, but not all of such markets?
a) what if it's rare and specific?
b) is there a percent here?
2) Manifold delists or removes some from other creators, but not you?
3) Manifold delists or removes them as a non-targeted sweep to improve market quality or reduce duplicates?
4) Manifold defangs delisting such that it only marginally reduces reach but doesn't prevent organic growth or bubbling up conversations?
@Stralor These are good questions that have made me think much more concretely about what would or would not be a problem to me.
1) Come to think of it, even if they just delisted 1% of my charge markets, that's potentially a serious blow to the credibility of the series. For my markets are homogeneous in quality, literally copypasted, with occasional tweaks. Thus if they pick and choose to remove any, that would suggest they've been corrupted somehow. That seems too exploitable by bad actors, and makes the series much less valuable.
Let's say >=1% delisted is YES, and <1% delisted is NO.
2) If they only delist some from other creators but none of mine, I'd tolerate that, and it's a NO. This doesn't undermine my efforts. And it could happen for other reasons, like if another market maker had antisocial habits or something (which I'm sure happens at some point).
3) Hmm, I didn't think of this. To make this market relevant to my decision-making, let's count this as YES. These certainly aren't duplicates, and IMO they're of a decent quality/effort. So if they're outright removed for those reasons, then either they made a very dumb blunder, OR the platform's mission changed, and became incompatible with mine. Either way, it ruins the point of investing effort into my markets. So we'll count as YES.
4) I might tolerate this if it's a very gentle defanging. But if it's no longer searchable, that would badly hurt the long-term value of the series. Not sure what sufficiently-gentle defangs would look like. But I insist they remain searchable, both in Google and in Manifold's intra-site search.
Let me know if you'd like further clarifications, and I will eventually edit the question body, so these refinements can be visible.