What will the minimum Arctic sea ice daily extent be in 2024?
12
1kṀ11kresolved Oct 13
Resolved
YESLess than 4.5 million km^2
Resolved
YESLess than 5 million km^2
Resolved
YESLess than 4.75 million km^2
Resolved
YESLess than 4.25 million km^2
Resolved
NOLess than 4.0 million km^2
Resolved
NOLess than 3.75 million km^2
Resolved
NOLess than 3.5 million km^2
Resolved
NOLess than 3.25 million km^2
Market settles based on the minimum daily Arctic sea ice extent as determined by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the data as it appears here:
https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv
The minimum is usually reached in mid-September. The market will be settled ASAP after the NSIDC makes the call.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ694 | |
| 2 | Ṁ632 | |
| 3 | Ṁ197 | |
| 4 | Ṁ26 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
73% chance
Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?
15% chance
Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent this century? (in square kilometers)
920k
Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
3% chance
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
48% chance
When will the Antarctic sea ice reach nearly zero before 2100?
25% chance
When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?
Will the north pole be ice free by 2030?
13% chance