The 2024 maximum Arctic sea ice extent as published by the NSIDC. Maximum extent usually occurs in early March. This market will settle once the official maximum is called, probably before April 1. This table is based on a 5-day trailing average. The actual record low maximum is 14.449 million km2.
Data is here:
1,000
3.00@ScottSupak
Movements of 2014 2016 2018 and 2019 would push max above 15
Movements of 2010 would get close, and I don't count 2007 and earlier as similar to current state of Arctic.
4 years in 16 a 25% chance ?
@ChristopherRandles Sure, if you assume that weather, SSTs, and air temps are the same as in previous years. Unfortunately, atm, we have a series of storms hitting both sides of the Arctic, along with anomalously warm waters eating at the ice edges, and generally warmer air, especially around the Russian islands and Newfoundland.
Please note that the table above with the lowest maxes reflects the trailing 5-day average. The actual record low in the data (linked above) is 14.449.
There is now a market at Kalshi for this:
https://kalshi.com/markets/arcticicemax/arctic-sea-ice-max-extent#arcticicemax-24apr01