Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve H.10 daily “Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar” rate (FRED series DEXCAUS) is strictly greater than 1.4286 at any observation dated between market open and December 31, 2025 (New York date). 1.4286 CAD per USD is the exact inverse of 0.7000 USD per CAD. If no such observation occurs, resolves NO after December 31, 2025. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

• If DEXCAUS data are unavailable for the relevant date(s), use the Bank of Canada daily USD rate (US dollar expressed in Canadian dollars) with the same >1.4286 threshold. (bankofcanada.ca)

• Intraday moves do not count; only the official daily value on the cited pages is used. Exactly 1.4286 does not count as “below $0.70 USD.”

Background

• The H.10 report shows USD/CAD reached 1.4515 on March 4, 2025, implying the Canadian dollar was about $0.6887 USD that day—i.e., below $0.70. (federalreserve.gov)

• Recently (early September 2025) USD/CAD has traded around 1.38 (~$0.72 USD per CAD). (reuters.com, federalreserve.gov)

Considerations

• Many sites quote USD/CAD (CAD per USD); “CAD below $0.70 USD” corresponds to USD/CAD > 1.4286. The resolution uses that inversion explicitly. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

• Bank of Canada rates are indicative daily averages and can differ slightly from broker quotes; H.10 uses New York noon buying rates. (bankofcanada.ca, fred.stlouisfed.org)

• Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the market description (which specifies January 1 - December 31, 2025) was AI-generated and does not reflect their intent. The creator states they intended the market to start from the market open date (September 2025), not from January 1, 2025. The creator is considering resolving to N/A if needed.