Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Canadian dollar (CAD) to US dollar (USD) exchange rate drops below $0.70 USD at any point before June 1, 2026, based on daily historical data. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The primary source for resolution will be the "Historical Exchange Rates" section on Xe.com (CAD to USD chart), specifically the "1 CAD to USD" rate shown at the end of the trading day. In the event of conflicting information, data from Bloomberg or the Bank of Canada's official exchange rate publications will be used.

Background

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is influenced by various economic factors, including economic growth, inflation rates, interest rate differentials between Canada and the US, and commodity prices, particularly oil, as Canada is a significant oil exporter. Fluctuations in global oil prices often lead to a corresponding impact on the CAD exchange rate.

As of October 24, 2025, the CAD to USD exchange rate is approximately $0.713539 USD. Over the past six months, the CAD has fluctuated, with a high of $0.7367 USD on June 17, 2025, and a low of $0.7119 USD on October 16, 2025. The average exchange rate for the last six months was $0.7246 USD. Recent depreciation in the CAD since October 2024 has been partly attributed to rising uncertainty around trade policies and a widening differential in policy interest rates between Canada and the US.

Considerations

Traders should consider the interplay of interest rate policies from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve, as well as the ongoing volatility in global commodity markets, particularly oil, which can significantly impact the CAD's value. Geopolitical events and trade relations between the US and Canada also play a role in exchange rate fluctuations.