Will the UN have more or less than 193 member states in 2030?

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At the end of June 2030, how many member states will the UN have? As I write this, there are 193: will this number increase, decrease, or stay the same? If the number of member states is 194 or greater, this question resolves YES. If the number is 192 or fewer, this question resolves NO. If the number is 193, this question resolves to 50%.

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Bougainville will get independence by 2027

There is no mechanism for Member States to leave the UN. Even if a Member State "claimed" to have left the UN (like Indonesia did in '65), it still doesn't count as a withdrawal in the eyes of the international community because there is no such thing as a withdrawal. The only way the number would decrease from 193 is if a Member State ceased to exist altogether. This could be because it's been annexed by another state (which is illegal and the UN would never recognise it) or because the state has split into several successor states á la USSR and the successor states don't for some reason immediately join the UN. Betting 'Yes' is significantly wiser than betting 'No', but I can't help but feel that it'd be better to be able to vote that the number will remain the same (which, in my view, is more likely than either the number going up or down).

@AlexCatalanFlores I've added a companion question: https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-the-number-of-un-member-states

@AlexCatalanFlores I think Russia was the successor state to the USSR. Has there ever been a split with no successor state?

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