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MANIFOLD
Will Mana withdrawals be disabled (for at least one day) this year?
15
Ṁ310Ṁ2.1k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Requires withdrawals (including donations to charity) to be entirely (or nearly so) unavailable for 24 contiguous hours. Does not depend on what is announced or not is announced; does not require it to be anybody's decision in particular.

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I think the bulk of the probability mass here is a manifold outage of some sort.

Created a different market that I think captures the question that I'm more interested in:

How will this resolve if MM is down for a day?

@lu then it resolves YES.

What do you mean by “withdrawal”?

@NcyRocks Resolves YES if the ability to convert Mana into anything with real-world value is removed. So if charity donations are disabled without being replaced by something similar (like the ability to just take out money), this resolves YES.

@NathanpmYoung Because hey, maybe they'll be cancelled after all! :)