Will any state update its flag in 2024?

Ṁ921

Ṁ150

Dec 31

19%

chance

ALL

Often these updates take place over the course of months or years. I'll use the earliest date at which the decision can be said to have been finalized. Typically this is when a law is passed and signed.

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-minnesota-state-flag/

"The commission must adopt one flag and seal design and submit a report to the legislature detailing those choices by Jan. 1. Then those will make their debut on May 11, which is Statehood Day, and the current designs will retire."

@Anovak Holy edge case batman. The description says "typically this is when a law is passed", and the law was passed in 2023. But, no flag has been selected yet.

I think in this case I should use the date when the commission submits its report. That's the point at which the choice of flag can be said to be finalized. If that happens on Jan 1st (or later) this will resolve YES (as long as they don't just stick with the old flag). If the commission submits their report this December, then Minnesota won't count towards a YES resolution.

Does that seem reasonable?

predicts YES

@ScottLawrence This is really tricky. The original legislation (which was passed in May 2023) clearly states that the new state flag is only officially adopted on May 11, 2024. So, I think that when the commission submits their report, there is still a possibility of legislation being passed before May 11, 2024 that prevents the state flag from ever technically changing. This seems unlikely, but I guess the decision isn't really final until 2024.

sold Ṁ118 of YES

@ScottLawrence Actually, now that I think about it if the Utah flag change taking effect in 2024 doesn't count, this one probably shouldn't either. I'm just going to sell my position so I don't have to think about these technicalities anymore.

@Anovak Okay, then I'm sticking with the resolution rules as above. The specific design needs to be finalized (publicly) in 2024. The moment the design is announced is the moment I count as "flag updated".

@ScottLawrence I think the 2023 market can resolve YES, then: they've finalized the design. https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/12/19/minnesota-final-flag-design-blue-north-star

@Marnix ah right. I think I agree. Resolving now

Utah is scheduled to update its flag on March 9, 2024.

@AndrewG I'm counting that update as having already happened. Both flags are being flown at the capitol: https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/new-utah-state-flag-becomes-official-as-cox-signs-executive-order

I've updated the description to clarify what counts as "update" going forward.

@ScottLawrence (See also the discussion on the linked market.)