Is the Higgs composite?
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1kṀ823
2050
21%
chance
This question resolves YES if any composite Higgs model is experimentally confirmed by the close date. It will also resolve to YES if there is overwhelming experimental evidence that the Higgs is composite, even if the nature of the constituents is not firmly established. It resolves NO if consensus at close date (according to my judgement of "consensus") is that the Higgs is not composite. If there are ambiguous experimental results (hinting at compositeness but not conclusive), this will resolve to PROB.
Science
Physics Forecasting
Particle Physics
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Adding liquidity because I had no idea this was even a question being contemplated and I appreciate this market for making me aware of it.
I really have no idea, I just want to support physics questions on Manifold
@BruceGrugett You could also subsidize the question by supplying liquidity! (accessible via the three dot menu at the top of the page)
Wish we had more physicists on here for your q's!
@ian That's okay, my evil plan is to recruit my physics friends with "look how many interesting questions there are to bet on!"
@ScottLawrence Will look out for these questions to feature them!

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