In what year will the factors of RSA-2048 be publicly known? | Manifold

In what year will the factors of RSA-2048 be publicly known?

Basic

4

Ṁ39

resolved Jan 1

100%20%

2031-2035

52%Other

2%

2022

2%

2023

2%

2024

2%

2025

6%

2026-2030

2%

2036-2040

1.1%

2041-2045

1.1%

2046-2050

1.1%

2051-2060

1.1%

2061-2070

1.2%

2071-2080

1.2%

2081-2090

1.2%

2091-2100

1.2%

After 2100

1.2%

Never

The RSA numbers serve as a set of large testcases for algorithms for finding large prime factors. The largest of these, RSA-2048, has never been factored. It is generally expected that it will never be factored with purely classical resources; i.e., medium-scale quantum computers will be required to find its two factors. The numbers themselves and historical factorizations may be viewed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers This question has a potentially long timescale, so to attempt to minimizing discounting-related distortions, I will resolve to PROB at the end of the year. (I intend for this question to serve as a proxy for "when will we have working, scalable, quantum computers", without needing to quibble over definitions too much.) May 19, 12:59am: PROB appears to not be an option. At the end of 2022, this market resolves to the mode.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Resolved to mode as promised.

Yeah... I made this market ~24hours before numeric markets came online. Bad timing, I guess. But I think I'll wait until numeric markets are more fleshed out. I find the current interface pretty hard to understand / non-transparent.

Have you thought of making a (newly available) numeric market for this question?

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