In what year will the factors of RSA-2048 be publicly known?
4
740Ṁ39resolved Jan 1
100%20%
2031-2035
52%Other
2%
2022
2%
2023
2%
2024
2%
2025
6%
2026-2030
2%
2036-2040
1.1%
2041-2045
1.1%
2046-2050
1.1%
2051-2060
1.1%
2061-2070
1.2%
2071-2080
1.2%
2081-2090
1.2%
2091-2100
1.2%
After 2100
1.2%
Never
The RSA numbers serve as a set of large testcases for algorithms for finding large prime factors. The largest of these, RSA-2048, has never been factored. It is generally expected that it will never be factored with purely classical resources; i.e., medium-scale quantum computers will be required to find its two factors.
The numbers themselves and historical factorizations may be viewed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers
This question has a potentially long timescale, so to attempt to minimizing discounting-related distortions, I will resolve to PROB at the end of the year.
(I intend for this question to serve as a proxy for "when will we have working, scalable, quantum computers", without needing to quibble over definitions too much.)
May 19, 12:59am: PROB appears to not be an option. At the end of 2022, this market resolves to the mode.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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