What are the prime factors of RSA-2048?
6
closes 2100
Conflux avatarthe number itself (it's prime)
4%
mana avatar7
1.9%
toms avatar1 and 251959084756578934940271832400483985714292821262040320277771378360436620207075955562640185258807844069182906412495150821892985591491761845028084891200728449926873928072877767359714183472702618963750149718246911650776133798590957000973
1.9%
JoshuaB avatar8
1.8%

This market resolves to the prime factors of 25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859095700097330459748808428401797429100642458691817195118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823824281198163815010674810451660377306056201619676256133844143603833904414952634432190114657544454178424020924616515723350778707749817125772467962926386356373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357.

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Tom Shlomi answered
1 and 251959084756578934940271832400483985714292821262040320277771378360436620207075955562640185258807844069182906412495150821892985591491761845028084891200728449926873928072877767359714183472702618963750149718246911650776133798590957000973
JoshuaB avatar
Joshua

@TomShlomi 1 is not a prime number. If the number itself is prime, then the prime factorization would just be the number itself.

1 reply
JoshuaB avatar
Joshua

Does it resolve 50/50 to the two prime factors, or is it done in proportion to the size? The prime factors seem to have historically been within around a power of 2 of each other, and it would be a really hilarious skew to have.

I do absolutely adore this market, since any bet here can be easily checked whether it factors RSA-2048, which presumably was the intention.

1 reply
Joshua answered
8
JoshuaB avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ1

(I picked my favorite prime number!)

Conflux answered
the number itself (it's prime)
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@placebo_username It's a bet that humans made a mistake somewhere and the number is accidentally a prime itself. Highly unlikely given how many people would have had to fail to notice, but still vastly more likely than any of the ~10^1227 other options.

Conflux answered
the number itself (it's prime)
Conflux avatar
Conflux

@placebo_username Thus my investment of only one mana

Conflux answered
the number itself (it's prime)
placebo_username avatar
Daniel

According to Wikipedia, it is known to have exactly two prime factors. Testing for primality is more efficient than computing factorizations, so if it were prime then the challenge would be much easier.

1 reply
Conflux answered
the number itself (it's prime)
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@Conflux Clever.