Will the Lonza make an uncontrolled break-through the collapsed glacier?
2
1kṀ900
Jun 8
22%
chance
6

News:

https://www.dw.com/en/swiss-glacier-collapse-partially-destroys-village-of-blatten/video-72709073

https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-flood-risk-after-landslide-engulfs-village/a-72724323

Will they find a way to drain the lake in time, or will the Lonza breakt through the debris and smash the villages downstream?

Market ends in 9 days, because my rich experience with natural disasters tells me that there is no way that such a situation persists longer than the average news-cycle.

Resolution criteria:

  • to be worked out in the next hours

Conditions:

  • I will trade in this market

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that if the pool continues to drain slowly without a catastrophic Murgang, the market will be resolved as No.

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The pool seems to be draining slowly. If this continues without a catastrophic Murgang I will resolve this market as "No"

@Schwabilismus sauce:

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/bergsturz-blatten-gefahr-einer-grossen-flutwelle-gemaess-experten-gesunken

In the Lötschental, the focus is on the dammed Lonza after the landslide. The water flows over the debris cone, carries a lot of sand with it and fills the dam in Ferden.

The level of the dammed lake at Blatten continues to fall. According to experts, the danger of a major flood wave is currently low.

No work can be carried out in Blatten. “Safety has not yet improved for the emergency services,” said Stéphane Ganzer, Valais State Councillor, at a media conference.


Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

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