Will the first national presidential poll including third parties after the Trump trial show Biden leading? (538)
32
1kṀ2087
resolved Jun 5
Resolved
NO

Resolves based on the first poll chronologically on this page (sorting by date added) with polling conducted starting on May 31 or later: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

A poll must include at least one third-party candidate to count for this question.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ150
2Ṁ104
3Ṁ85
4Ṁ84
5Ṁ64
Sort by:

Looks like the first poll is the Morning Consult poll conducted only on May 31; it has Biden +1. Resolve Yes.

@EvanDaniel This poll does not include third-party candidates. You might be thinking of my two-way market, which that poll caused to resolve YES.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy