Will the first national presidential poll including third parties after the Trump trial show Biden leading? (538)
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionPoliticsTrump
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resolved Jun 5
Resolved
NO

Resolves based on the first poll chronologically on this page (sorting by date added) with polling conducted starting on May 31 or later: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

A poll must include at least one third-party candidate to count for this question.

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https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_b6cGJcE.pdf - Shows a tie, therefore this resolves NO

Looks like the first poll is the Morning Consult poll conducted only on May 31; it has Biden +1. Resolve Yes.

@EvanDaniel This poll does not include third-party candidates. You might be thinking of my two-way market, which that poll caused to resolve YES.

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