Resolves based on the first two-way poll chronologically on this page (sorting by date added) with polling conducted starting on May 31 or later: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Two-way polls do not include third party candidates.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ5,157 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,993 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,085 | |
| 4 | Ṁ496 | |
| 5 | Ṁ405 |
Good chance this poll is the one that causes this market to resolve, but we'll see if anything else comes out today and what 538 adds first
The Ipsos poll does not count according to the resolution criteria in the description. It was conducted May 30 - May 31, and I required polls to start on May 31 or later to avoid resolving based on a poll started on May 30 before the conviction. This one was conducted only after the conviction, but we'll stick with what the description says.
Same applies for the Echelon poll
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/upshot/polling-trump-verdict-conviction.html - interesting piece