Will Manifold have more than 1445 daily active users on any day in June?
Basic
50
18k
resolved Jun 4
Resolved
YES

https://manifold.markets/stats

Resolves based on DAU, not 7-day avg. Must be 1446 DAU or more on a day in June to resolve YES.

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@SaviorofPlant June 3rd was 1495, I think this can resolve YES

bought Ṁ1 NO

feels like the site is kind of dead post-pivot. can they change this? 1445 was the highest 7-day average DAU number on any day in may so far

@SaviorofPlant its like wandering through a dark souls map reading the scraps of paper left by the civilization before

@SaviorofPlant I think I overdid the serotonin boosts there during Trump trial. Now I have kind of a hangover.

ETA wow, they gave up pretty much the whole Sam Altman boost.

@SaviorofPlant @strutheo also why is this not a prize market. Very unfair! If one of the EA community had created it it would be featured in Manifold Politics

@SaviorofPlant I'm sticking to my belief that prize points are too confusing for most users (anyone who didn't read the pivot post)

Also, hyperinflation sucks