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October in which time zone? If UTC +0, would a 12am UTC +0 update on November 1 count if it comes in a little early (as it typically does)?

@SaviorofPlant above question. PT time of close seems odd. UTC or ET/local time where storm forms seems more appropriate.

Also if it forms as a numbered depression before the deadline but gets named Vince after the deadline, that would resolve as 'no' presumably from the wording?

What if they announce before the deadline that advisories will start after the deadline? Does this depend on whether, in the announcement that advisories will commence, they call it "Tropical Storm Vince" or do they just have to say it has formed (yes) whereas expected to form or some other future tense wording is a no?

Plug for a related market:

Reminder: If 96L becomes a tropical depression but not a tropical storm it will not get a name.

Intensity guidance at 12Z seems to agree that a short-term intensification to TS strength is unlikely.