Background
A tropical disturbance, 96L, has formed north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola per the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Will 96L further develop into a tropical storm as it is forecast to move northwestward?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if 96L reaches tropical storm strength, before dissipation or merger with non-tropical fronts, according to the NHC.
Resolves NO if the conditions for YES are not satisfied before dissipation or merger with non-tropical fronts.
Will resolve and adjudicate based on NHC advisories.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ150 in as subsidy.
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What NHC says about AL96 in its latest discussion:
...INVEST-AL96 in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean...
A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 26N76W. A surface trough is along 75W/76W from 31N southward, beyond SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 60W westward. The precipitation has become minimal. This system is embedded in a region of very
dry mid-latitude air with strong upper level winds. More development of this system is no longer anticipated. The system is forecast to turn northward slowly, and then northeastward by the middle part of this week.
In the future, I will likely specify more clearly in the criterion whether I will resolve NO by when NHC stops issuing formation chances for an invest, or when the NHC stops mentioning the system altogether in its discussions, owing to dissipation, frontal merger, and so on. In case AL96 somehow, improbably, develops after this point, I will refund YES bettor for what they have betted.
See you next time!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310534
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development during the next several days while the system moves westward over the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America towards the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster ReinhartPer the latest outlook, the NHC has stopped issuing formation chances for AL96, deeming the formation chance to be effectively at zero percent. Hence the condition for a NO resolution on this market has been reached. Please let me know below if you have any comments or concerns. I will otherwise resolve this market as NO in an hour.
@parhizj Thanks. Will resolve NO when the NHC stops issuing formation chances for 96L, which seems imminent now.
