Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ashley Hinson (Republican) and Josh Turek (Democrat) are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Jun 23, 2026).

Who will win the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa?

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Ṁ10kṀ32k

Nov 3

Ashley Hinson (Republican)60%

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2026 US Congressional Elections

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opened a Ṁ7,500 YES at 37% order

/Jack1/will-democrats-win-iowa-in-2026

bought Ṁ50 YES

I think this election is gets relatively little media coverage compared to the other races in roughly R+10 states this cycle (Alaska, Ohio, Texas), but there's no incumbent and it will probably only be a little bit to the right of OH / TX. With the primary over and candidates now determined, I've created a high liquidity market for it