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@SaviorofPlant

Now TS Debby. Notably the advisory predicts a landfalling hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/032049.shtml?

000
WTNT24 KNHC 032049
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  83.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

At 1007 MB that puts it by my estimation in ~ the 74% percentile for tropical storms (from my workbook):

Intensity market is up: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-be-the-maximum-intensity?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA

NHC Issuing potential TC advisories now... (forecasting a TS on the 4th based on the last two advisories):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/022035.shtml

NHC still gives Debby a 60% chance in the next week....

Models split between a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico (5th) and a Subtropical Storm off the east Coast (~6th):

@SaviorofPlant , Reopen?

@SaviorofPlant 50% chance formation within 7 days. Is that enough to restart adding days ?

You can always add them yourself... I added August 5...

@SaviorofPlant Adding more answers or resolve?

This one is a basic market and there's no sign of any potential Debbys right now...not trying to break the bank here, can start adding answers again once it looks like something might form

Per FSU: CMC/GFS 00Z no longer predicting genesis for 96L this cycle.