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@SaviorofPlant

...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

@parhizj Wow that was fast

@SaviorofPlant Last PDF I looked at yesterday from 12-18Z, had GEFS/GEPS/EPS all in near perfect agreement of ~ 34% for today (but satellite and other imagery looked like it might need another day of organization) .... Just woke up a while ago and checked NHC to find it already had designated

GEFS/18Z is the most aggressive VMax wise ... GEPS/EPS from 12Z are a bit slower (filtered by CPS params)...

This includes tracks from a potential wave further to the east and a potential area in the Caribbean (not just AL98):

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized over 
the past 24 hours in association with a broad low pressure system 
along a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.