Resolves YES if the US National Hurricane Center names a new tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of America) between the creation of this market and 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2026. Since Josephine was the season's tenth named storm, the next name on the list is Kyle.

What counts: the NHC issues an advisory with the system at tropical-storm or subtropical-storm strength (39 mph / 34 kt or more) and gives it a name, with that first named advisory dated on or before November 30 (UTC). A tropical depression that never gets named does not count. Eastern and Central Pacific storms do not count.

Source: NHC advisories and the active-storms list at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/). Operational naming decides. Later reanalysis that adds or removes a storm does not change the result.

Context (Oct 26): ten named storms so far, the first hurricane (Isaias) did not form until October 8, and a strong El Niño is under way. The NHC's 8 AM EDT outlook on Oct 26 said formation "is not expected during the next 7 days". In most seasons since 1991 a named storm formed somewhere between late October and November 30, but it was far less common in strong El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006 and 2023 had none; 2009 and 2015 did).

I will not trade in this market.