For purposes of this market, the week of the election runs from Monday, November 4, 2024 to Sunday, November 11, 2024. The market runs in Pacific time.
All events must occur during this week. Any election results that are not certain by midnight PST on November 12 will resolve N/A.
1,000
3.00[Oops, already answered. My bad.] In the world, generally, including the course of normal events, or in the United States, as a result of the election?
@GregW Would you consider a taser a gun?
https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/ruling/1976-6-tasers-firearms
@Slackhammer What context am I missing here? I'm genuinely curious about what this would be. The Just Stop Oil movement?
Also, how significant is that "and"? Do all 3 need to be true to resolve YES?
@Quroe No, not specifically spray paint, but these were put up by the voters themselves. I was thinking of right-wingers marking out their neighbors for intimidation and future violence purposes. Trump campaign texts/emails have contained lightly veiled, "if you don't vote for Trump, we'll know," threats, and those were sent to known supporters.
8 billion people /100 years life expectancy / 52 weeks in a year = ~1.5 million
Seems like too much of a sure thing?
Even if we wanted something like 2m deaths in the week, where would numbers be available to resolve this?
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ shows 22.4 million deaths this year approx 15 weeks so my rough calculation above seems in agreement with this.
@HarryHayfield Is this referring to the presidential race or would something like a late House call count too?