Resolution notes:

"More than a million people die": Unclear what user meant (as a result of the election or in general?) No response when asked, so N/A

7% polling error: Resolves YES (RCP FL Sen: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/florida/scott-vs-mucarsel-powell)

Trifecta, turnout, third-party candidates: Resolve N/A due to rule in description - "Any election results that are not certain by midnight PST on November 12 will resolve N/A." (The third-party candidates in California had 3.0% of the total vote, but California was not done counting and they did not reach this total in any other state.)

NYT trans article: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/trump-trans-rights.html?searchResultPosition=1

@SaviorofPlant The entire time the market has been open, it was always "in general", not "as a result of the election". At no point was there any indication otherwise. There were no constraints written on the market description to suggest "in the US" or "as a result of ...". Please do resolve it as "YES", as the entire point of the market was that it was a foregone conclusion.

@josh I apologize, I just assumed you were an inactive account when you did not respond 6 months ago, should have pinged you again before resolving.

@mods Is it possible to re-resolve "More than a million people die" to YES? Sorry for the inconvenience.

@SaviorofPlant Ah, I see. The comments 6 months ago didn't seem like they needed a response, and it didn't occur to me that there'd be an expectation of one.

@SaviorofPlant Thank you!

1.6%? I find your lack of faith disturbing

9k limit order at 64%

Closing in 2 days, get your bets in now

While I'm hesitant to bet on an option I made, 30% still seems shockingly high to me at time of comment.

[Oops, already answered. My bad.] In the world, generally, including the course of normal events, or in the United States, as a result of the election?

apparently manifold thinks there is a 18% chance of cancer being cured by that week or something

@GregW Would you consider a taser a gun?

https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/ruling/1976-6-tasers-firearms

@Slackhammer What context am I missing here? I'm genuinely curious about what this would be. The Just Stop Oil movement?

Also, how significant is that "and"? Do all 3 need to be true to resolve YES?

No, all three don't need to be true.

I can't find the news article, but back in 2020 or 2022, someone in California was spraypainting blue marks on the driveways of Democratic voters, based on their voter registration records. That's what I recall, anyway.

@Slackhammer Do they need to be spray paint?

https://youtu.be/Mnmdwuyanj8?si=iFYsxjHm630JOrlG

@Quroe No, not specifically spray paint, but these were put up by the voters themselves. I was thinking of right-wingers marking out their neighbors for intimidation and future violence purposes. Trump campaign texts/emails have contained lightly veiled, "if you don't vote for Trump, we'll know," threats, and those were sent to known supporters.

8 billion people /100 years life expectancy / 52 weeks in a year = ~1.5 million
Seems like too much of a sure thing?

Even if we wanted something like 2m deaths in the week, where would numbers be available to resolve this?

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ shows 22.4 million deaths this year approx 15 weeks so my rough calculation above seems in agreement with this.

Do comments like he made in 2016 ("President-elect Donald Trump alleged Sunday, without evidence, that “millions of people” voted illegally for Hillary Clinton") count?

@HarryHayfield Is this referring to the presidential race or would something like a late House call count too?

@SaviorofPlant The Presidential Race

Seems pretty unlikely. California will probably take a few weeks to count the votes, but the outcome of the election there is basically guaranteed.

Presidential candidates, to clarify

Does anyone seriously expect Trump to concede?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I am also baffled that people are bidding this down

I don't think it's impossible, especially if he loses by a large margin