What will happen in the week of the United States presidential election? [Add answers]
Basic
73
4.8k
Nov 12
94%
Combined votes for all third-party candidates exceeds 3% in at least one state
90%
More than a million people die
88%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets more votes than the margin between the Democrat and Republican in the presidential race in any state
82%
Turnout in the 2024 election is lower than it was in 2020
79%
Donald Trump declares victory
77%
There is a polling error of at least 7% from the FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics average for a state in a presidential, Senate, or governor election (average must contain at least 5 polls)
64%
Donald Trump says that the election was rigged
56%
At least half the swing states vote to the left of their RCP polling averages. (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI Presidential)
56%
There is a riot at a location where votes are being counted.
51%
The S&P 500 closes higher at the end of the week than the beginning
39%
Someone with less than a 3 percent of winning in the FiveThirtyEight forecast wins their House race
32%
A single party wins the presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate
25%
A gun is fired at a location where votes are being counted.
20%
Trump spends at least an hour in a courtroom on at least one day
17%
The media refuse to call the election until every state has at least 99% of precincts reporting
4%
Jimmy Carter dies

For purposes of this market, the week of the election runs from Monday, November 4, 2024 to Sunday, November 11, 2024. The market runs in Pacific time.

All events must occur during this week. Any election results that are not certain by midnight PST on November 12 will resolve N/A.

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More than a million people die

8 billion people /100 years life expectancy / 52 weeks in a year = ~1.5 million
Seems like too much of a sure thing?

Even if we wanted something like 2m deaths in the week, where would numbers be available to resolve this?

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ shows 22.4 million deaths this year approx 15 weeks so my rough calculation above seems in agreement with this.

Donald Trump says that the election was rigged

Do comments like he made in 2016 ("President-elect Donald Trump alleged Sunday, without evidence, that “millions of people” voted illegally for Hillary Clinton") count?

The media refuse to call the election until every state has at least 99% of precincts reporting

@HarryHayfield Is this referring to the presidential race or would something like a late House call count too?

@SaviorofPlant The Presidential Race

Combined votes for all third-party candidates exceeds 3% in at least one state

Presidential candidates, to clarify

Donald Trump declares victory
bought Ṁ20 Donald Trump declare... YES

Does anyone seriously expect Trump to concede?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I am also baffled that people are bidding this down