What will happen in the week of the United States presidential election? [Add answers]
165
3.6kαΉ28kresolved Nov 15
Resolved
YESDonald Trump declares victory
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YESThe S&P 500 closes higher at the end of the week than the beginning
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YESThere is a polling error of at least 7% from the FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics average for a state in a presidential, Senate, or governor election (average must contain at least 5 polls)
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YESMore than a million people die
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YESThe New York Times has an article about trans people
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N/ACombined votes for all third-party candidates exceeds 3% in at least one state
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N/ATurnout in the 2024 election is lower than it was in 2020
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N/AA single party wins the presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate
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NOJimmy Carter dies
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NORobert F. Kennedy Jr. gets more votes than the margin between the Democrat and Republican in the presidential race in any state
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NOThe media refuse to call the election until every state has at least 99% of precincts reporting
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NOThere is a riot at a location where votes are being counted.
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NOA gun is fired at a location where votes are being counted.
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NOSomeone with less than a 3 percent chance of winning in the FiveThirtyEight forecast wins their House race
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NODonald Trump says that the election was rigged
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NOTrump spends at least an hour in a courtroom on at least one day
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NOAt least half the swing states vote to the left of their RCP polling averages. (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI Presidential)
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NOCombined votes for all third-party candidates exceeds 7% in at least one state
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NOA magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurs somewhere on Earth and is reported on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map
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NOJoe Biden sits for a television interview
For purposes of this market, the week of the election runs from Monday, November 4, 2024 to Sunday, November 11, 2024. The market runs in Pacific time.
All events must occur during this week. Any election results that are not certain by midnight PST on November 12 will resolve N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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