What will be the maximum intensity of Tropical Storm Isaac?

1kṀ7401

resolved Oct 1

100%8%

Category 2 hurricane

0.9%

Weak tropical storm (35 - 45 kt)

15%

Strong tropical storm (50 - 60 kt)

74%

Category 1 hurricane

0.9%

Category 3 hurricane

0.5%

Category 4 hurricane

0.5%

Category 5 hurricane

Operational intensity, ignoring post-season adjustments

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Looks likely this will be upgraded to a cat 2 in a couple hours … should have hedged properly…

Isaac designated a hurricane at the 5am advisory... forecast to reach 75kt.

I don't think they ever saw the same SAR pass I did last night as I don't see it mentioned in the discussions (focused on Helene?).

bought Ṁ65 YES

Not too confident when EPS/12Z predicts >50% of its members having it (at least momentarily) reaching 978 MSLP

(VMax wise these global ensembles seem less helpful ...)

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