What will be the highest annual PCE inflation in a report released between September 2025 and the midterms?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ1.5k

Nov 3

4.3 %

expected

ALL

83%

Above 3%

36%

Above 4%

32%

Above 5%

30%

Above 6%

19%

Above 7%

15%

Above 8%

Above 9%

The number I'm looking at is this one:

"From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent."

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025

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Tarrifs are currently running at about 1% of GDP. Consumption is about 66% of GDP. If the entire extra 1% of GDP is passed onto consumers (which is unlikely), that would increase inflation by an extra 1.5%.

If it was 2.7% pre tarrifs, that would take it up to ~4.2%.

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