What will be the highest annual PCE inflation in a report released between September 2025 and the midterms?
5
1kṀ1285
2026
4.75 %
expected
91%
Above 3%
51%
Above 4%
35%
Above 5%
30%
Above 6%
19%
Above 7%
15%
Above 8%
9%
Above 9%

The number I'm looking at is this one:

"From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent."

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025

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Tarrifs are currently running at about 1% of GDP. Consumption is about 66% of GDP. If the entire extra 1% of GDP is passed onto consumers (which is unlikely), that would increase inflation by an extra 1.5%.

If it was 2.7% pre tarrifs, that would take it up to ~4.2%.

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