The market will close at a randomly selected time between 12:00 AM EDT and 11:59 PM EDT on September 18. If this time is when I would normally be asleep, I will set an alarm to close the market then.
If the "All answers resolve NO if this answer is at 1% at market close" option is at 1% at market close, all answers resolve NO. If the "All answers resolve YES if this answer is at 99% at market close", all answers resolve YES. If both of these conditions are true, all answers resolve 50%. If Jimmy Carter dies before this market is set to close, all the even answers and the 99% one resolve YES, and all the odd answers and the 1% one resolve NO (in this scenario, the market will close early). Otherwise, each option resolves to a percentage based on the following formulas (with each percentage rounded to the nearest whole percentage):
Option 1: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 25) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 56) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 37) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 30) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 77) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 59) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 44) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 66)) mod 100
Option 2: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 13) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 53) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 8) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 80) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 5) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 73) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 80) + (Option 8 percentage at close)) mod 100
Option 3: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 4) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 89) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 69) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 71) + (1) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 36) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 99) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 74)) mod 100
Option 4: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 95) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 78) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 34) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 24) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 10) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 65) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 95) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 98)) mod 100
Option 5: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 54) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 92) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 36) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 43) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 35) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 24) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 9) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 69)) mod 100
Option 6: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 10) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 48) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 36) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 85) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 69) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 60) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 95) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 12)) mod 100
Option 7: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 89) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 97) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 86) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 83) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 3) + (Option 6 percentage at close, mod 37) + (Option 7 percentage at close) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 74)) mod 100
Option 8: ((Option 1 percentage at close, mod 24) + (Option 2 percentage at close, mod 80) + (Option 3 percentage at close, mod 53) + (Option 4 percentage at close, mod 30) + (Option 5 percentage at close, mod 44) + (1) + (Option 7 percentage at close, mod 45) + (Option 8 percentage at close, mod 35)) mod 100
"All answers resolve YES if this answer is at 99% at market close": Resolves NO if this answer is not at 99% at market close
All answers resolve NO if this answer is at 1% at market close: Resolves YES if this answer is not at 99% at market close
I will not trade on this market except for a 1 mana trade to increase the number of traders at market creation (as I have the advantage of knowing when the market will close).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,685 | |
| 2 | Ṁ67 | |
| 3 | Ṁ55 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
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Ah, unlucky for me, I was just starting to get some bets in. This was a very interesting market though!
Idea for next time: So I was graphing for each option how the percentage of the option itself changes as I vary it. For some of the options, it's hard to move them very much in either direction, because the line around 50% is too flat. E.g. here's the last option:
I think it might be a bit easier to bet if the options either had their own percentage (mod something) with a multiplier, like 2 or 3, or not have their own percentage at all.
@yetforever I think one potential strategy would have been to target options which are mod 40-60 in other options, which lets you drastically shift their value, and then bet those options in the corresponding directions.
Concept was flawed though - the whalebait options were too expensive and easy to disrupt to be worth it, and the other options just don't have a lot of opportunity for profit when resolving to a percentage
@SaviorofPlant Ah, true! I'm guessing you'd have to overflow one of them, and then a move on another option becomes profitable.
I think the concept was really good though. With a Plus market, the spreads you get from resolving to percentage are still good enough to motivate me.
If you do this kind of thing again, it might be worth putting it in a machine-readable form like
outcome_for_x[0] = ((x[0] % 25) + (x[1] % 56) + (x[2] % 37) + (x[3] % 30) + (x[4] % 77) + (x[5] % 59) + (x[6] % 44) + (x[7] % 66)) % 100
just because this kind of market almost certainly requires a bit of coding or talking to ChatGPT to be able to bet on it. It's a bit too overwhelming to try and work through it manually. (The first thing I did was write some regexes to get this form.)
Due to how the mod operator works, statistically the options are a bit likelier to resolve to a percentage <50
If you assume most percentages will stay about the same, you can probably find a few targeted tweaks to earn a profit
The last two are just pure whalebait, if you blow 100k on them you can print mana