[ADD ANSWERS] Conditional market: Given various events, who will win each state in the 2024 US presidential election?
Basic
20
แน€2154
Nov 5
83%
If an abortion referendum is on the Florida ballot, Trump will win Florida
56%
If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, Trump will win Wisconsin
53%
If a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, Trump will win Michigan
50%
If Trump picks a female Vice President, Trump will win Michigan
46%
If RFK Jr is on the Michigan ballot, Trump will win Michigan
42%
If the WHO declares a new public health emergency of international concern, Biden will win Pennsylvania
42%
If GPT-5 is released, Trump will win Pennsylvania
42%
If the S&P 500 drops more than 20% from its high on March 28 at any point, Trump will win New Hampshire
41%
If a member of the Supreme Court dies, Trump will win Arizona
39%
If the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Biden winning the national popular vote on Election Day, Trump will win Nevada
38%
If Joe Biden dies, Harris will win Georgia
34%
If the Arizona abortion law from 1864 remains in place, Biden will win Arizona
33%
If Biden suffers a heart attack or stroke, Trump will win Virginia
32%
If Trump spends any time in prison, Biden will win North Carolina
31%
If Taylor Swift endorses Biden, Biden will win Michigan
30%
If a ceasefire is declared in Gaza, Biden will win Michigan
27%
If Trump is found guilty in the January 6 case, Biden will win North Carolina
25%
If Trump is found guilty in the Manhattan hush money case, Biden will win Wisconsin
18%
If Mike Johnson ceases to be Speaker of the House, Biden will win Nevada
13%
If there is at least one televised presidential debate, Biden will win Arizona

Valid answers must take adhere loosely to the form "If <event>, then <Candidate> will win <State>". If the conditional event described in the answer does not happen before the election, it resolves N/A. I will also resolve answers N/A if they have already happened between market creation and the time the answer was created. If an event does happen between April 14 and election day, it resolves YES or NO based on the presidential election outcome in the state.

We can get a rough idea of how Manifold thinks various events might impact the election results by comparing probabilities in this market with other state-level markets like this one: https://manifold.markets/Ernie/2024-biden-wins-which-states-multip

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sold แน€33 If Trump is found gu... NO

this market is so screwed up now

@traders Manifold is removing the ability to resolve answers N/A as part of the pivot. If this happens, I will be forced to resolve answers as NO if the conditional event in the question does not occur.

It's possible markets will still be able to resolve N/A if they were created before the pivot. In this case I will proceed as intended.

bought แน€10 Answer #fe5d8ac0d49e NO

If a Fetterman scenario happens, I think the outcome would be the same. It'll be far closer than expected, but no flip.

Is this implication rules? Like "If A, B" == ((not A) or B)

@Jacobmpp No, it resolves N/A if (not A), and everyone gets their mana back

@Jacobmpp More precisely:

Resolves YES: A and B
Resolves NO: A and (not B)
Resolves N/A: (not A)

@SaviorofPlant Sorry, didn't see the description.