Mostly for weekly quests. I wont bet on this market. I will probably answer questions if there aren't too many and it isn't too personal. I will only resolve after market close, even if I have done something interesting earlier.
past markets:
Feb 23 YES - played mahjong with my high school friends
Mar 2 YES - Two things are private, then I make this cool UI with a decent bit of vibe coding
Mar 9 We are here. YES - market manipulation; backend optimization; friends
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
Resolves YES, three things happened
1.
I sped up my hobby project's backend by 20x because it was horribly inefficient before
2.
I met with some friends I haven't saw in years
3.
I kinda pump and dumped Will this market get between 35 and 55 traders? twice, tried to extort Plant, and lied to Bayesian.
I had been following this market for a couple days before trading or sending any messages to attract traders, and jumped in on the Manifold discord when the time is right. (I forgot to screenshot my message in #market-misc so here is my best recreation from memory)
closes in 5 hours, needs 9 more people, seem really likely to resolve YES given that I am promoting it here, since this channel/timezone seem like the perfect amount of eyes
Before sending this message, I bought the market up from 15% to 51%. The message pushed the prob up to 98% and I managed to dump most of it at 95% to Plant.

After noticing that Plant has most of the YES shares and now has a strong incentive to make the market has less activity, I tried to extort them and asked for mana in exchange for deleting my message on discord. (At the end they didn't reply, probably busy)
At this point, there are only two people replied to my message on discord, Bayesian and Plant, because Plant isn't replying, I thought I can make my extortion more appealing and I messaged Bayesian, I pretended that it is a simple cooperation scheme and told him that we should delete our messages at the same time.
While I am doing lawful shenanigans, someone has been creating alt accounts and buying NO on them, so it quickly became obvious that the market will go above 55 traders and I gave up on the extortion.
At 51 traders, I noticed that the market description is only 'Resolves yes if this market has between 35 and 55 traders at market close. (Inclusive) [...]" and didn't actually say when the market will close, there is nothing stoping the creator manually closing it early.
I bought a bit of YES shares and wrote
Wouldnt it be extremely funny if you manually close the market now and resolve YES
I figured there is a non-zero chance I can convince him to do this, since he is a bit frustrated with the alt accounts and said "I will ask moderators to investigate all new accounts trading on this market and I hope they ban you if you are breaking the rules".
He didn't, but others also thought it is possible that he would, so I managed to pump the market from 1% up to 8% and profited slightly (should have bought more shares)

@GazDownright nothing actually. I consider myself quite a boring person. Right now my life mostly consist of reading, coding and exercising
@SavioMak is this more a "will something interesting happen to me" than "will i make something interesting happen?"
@GazDownright It can totally be a "will someone (including you) convince me to do something interesting" though. I certainly wouldnt mind doing something fun for a large enough amount of mana