Resolves yes if this market has between 35 and 55 traders at market close. (Inclusive)
Market stats in the top right corner will be used.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,736 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,134 | |
| 3 | Ṁ841 | |
| 4 | Ṁ603 | |
| 5 | Ṁ491 |
@traders i got something for you https://manifold.markets/Dawid/will-this-market-get-more-than-100-2En6t8NRIN?r=RGF3aWQ
This is what happened from my perspective, I was holding off doing a writeup on this for my own market: Will I do something interesting this week according to me
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I kinda pump and dumped Will this market get between 35 and 55 traders? twice, tried to extort Plant, and lied to Bayesian.
I had been following this market for a couple days before trading or sending any messages to attract traders, and jumped in on the Manifold discord when the time is right. (I forgot to screenshot my message in #market-misc so here is my best recreation from memory)
closes in 5 hours, needs 9 more people, seem really likely to resolve YES given that I am promoting it here, since this channel/timezone seem like the perfect amount of eyes
Before sending this message, I bought the market up from 15% to 51%. The message pushed the prob up to 98% and I managed to dump most of it at 95% to Plant.
After noticing that Plant has most of the YES shares and now has a strong incentive to make the market has less activity, I tried to extort them and asked for mana in exchange for deleting my message on discord. (At the end they didn't reply, probably busy)
At this point, there are only two people replied to my message on discord, Bayesian and Plant, because Plant isn't replying, I thought I can make my extortion more appealing and I messaged Bayesian, I pretended that it is a simple cooperation scheme and told him that we should delete our messages at the same time.
While I am doing lawful shenanigans, someone has been creating alt accounts and buying NO on them, so it quickly became obvious that the market will go above 55 traders and I gave up on the extortion.
At 51 traders, I noticed that the market description is only 'Resolves yes if this market has between 35 and 55 traders at market close. (Inclusive) [...]" and didn't actually say when the market will close, there is nothing stoping the creator manually closing it early.
I bought a bit of YES shares and wrote
Wouldnt it be extremely funny if you manually close the market now and resolve YES
I figured there is a non-zero chance I can convince him to do this, since he is a bit frustrated with the alt accounts and said "I will ask moderators to investigate all new accounts trading on this market and I hope they ban you if you are breaking the rules".
He didn't, but others also thought it is possible that he would, so I managed to pump the market from 1% up to 8% and profited slightly (should have bought more shares)
I will ask moderators to investigate all new accounts trading on this market and I hope they ban you if you are breaking the rules
@SavioMak yes I will go with the number as that is what most people will be trading on and I dont expect people to investigate users before placing a bet. Thanks