Major hurricanes are defined by NOAA as tropical storms with a Saffir-Simpson category of 3-5 and sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
This question will resolve to YES if there are 5 or more major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere by the end of 2023. And it will resolve to NO if there are 4 or fewer.
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Since the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30, this market is eligible to be resolved. The number of major hurricanes is 3 - Franklin, Idalia and Lee. I will be resolving the market as NO in a day (since I moved up the market resolution time from year end) if there is no objection.
@SarkanyVar Seems fine, I figured you meant to end it Dec 1st given the title of "Atlantic hurricane season"
imo should be like 1 to 5%
To-be Hurricane Lee has quite a high chance to become the third hurricane to fulfil the criterion of this market.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/09/05/tropical-storm-lee-forms-expected-to-rapidly-become-major-hurricane/?sh=6e535d2f69ad
The market on Manifold that taps into whether Lee will become a major hurricane is extremely bullish.