Background
A deep area of low pressure moving towards Ireland and the UK has been named Storm Ciarán, as it is forecast to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the southern parts of England and Wales. The forecast map below shows the predicted arrival of Storm Ciarán on Thursday.
From the article:
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Chris Almond, said “Winds associated with Storm Ciarán are likely to gust to 80mph along the south coast of England, with a small risk of somewhere exposed seeing 90mph, and winds could even gust up to 50 or 60 mph further inland.
Will a wind gust exceeding 90mph be therefore observed anywhere in the UK as a result of Storm Ciarán?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Met Office reports a maximum gust speed above 90mph (not inclusive of 90mph) in any Met Office weather stations, including mountain stations, on their report on Storm Ciarán.
Resolves NO if no such record can be found on the Met Office report on the storm, two days after the latest update to the report is issued by the Met Office. Two days are stipulated so that said update will likely be the last update by the Met Office on the storm.
Will resolve and adjudicate based on Maximum Gust Speeds reported in Met Office Storm Centre reports. Wind records from other sources will not be considered for the sake of resolution.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ150 in as subsidy.
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Ha, the storm report is out, just after I wrote the last comment. Max gusts of >90kt are detected... in France. I will be resolving this today (November 11) since the 'last updated' date on the report is November 9.
Not sure what's holding the Met Office up, since they haven't even updated the dates of impact yet. Though I have discovered in some cases in the previous years that occasionally, some storms had no reports.
As a market creator, I tend to want to avoid N/A'ing markets as much as possible so as not to negate the work of traders on a market. In this particular case, I think the lack of a report is arguably the lack of a record, so a NO resolution would be more congruent to the criteria listed. Besides, as of this point only the house bot has a YES position, so, well, screw the bot.
I am planning to let this market run till the end of November if there is still no storm report uploaded. At the beginning of December, if there is still no report on this storm, I am planning to resolve this as NO. Please let me know if you have any comments or concerns.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-67271027
Strong wind gust forecasted for Channel Islands. But since Channel Islands are not included within the Storm Centre reports, readings taken there would not count.
@SarkanyVar This is an animated gif showing the Spire's forecast of maximum gust speeds as Ciarán sweeps across southern UK (gifs don't show properly when uploaded so I linked it instead).
