Background
Although tornadoes are observed all over the world, the United States experience tornado activities more frequently than any other places on Earth. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Storm Prediction Center tracks the activities of tornadoes in the continental US and issues preliminary reports for tornado activities, alongside severe wind and hail events each month.
Although a typical tornado season in the United States peaks between March and June, tornado outbreaks have been documented in every month of the year.
As such, this market aims to capture the number of tornadoes in the United States during the month of November in 2023, and asks how many tornadoes will there be in the continental US during the period of time, according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center. The question has been adapted from the Kalshi market that asks the same thing and resolves similarly.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the answer consistent with the preliminary number of tornadoes as recorded in the preliminary report from NOAA Storm Prediction Center, at the end of November 2023.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ150 in as subsidy.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ134 | |
| 2 | Ṁ120 | |
| 3 | Ṁ88 | |
| 4 | Ṁ43 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
People are also trading
The December count has begun and thus the preliminary report's number of 20 should be final (for the sake of this market). I will be resolving this as 0-25 when this markets closes. Please leave a comment if there is any disagreement.
For the December market, I will be making it more similar to the Kalshi market with independent answers so traders can cash out early when a certain number is reached before month end.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/20/weather/south-severe-storms-tornadoes-monday/index.html
Tornado conditions from Texas to the Southeast.