😂 you all!

doesn't this just resolve NO ?

@ZandaZhu ...I think so...? I'm staying out of this one -- too dangerous.

@ZandaZhu no, see below. prolly will resolve n/a

I think the creator is fairly new and doesnt quite understand how leagues work.

Can you promote to a new league before a season ends? No, you cannot, even if you cross thresholds in your cohort. Seasons end the day after the month and that's the time promotions happen.

I believe both clarifications are at odds because of this misconception (and a slight language barrier). I think the only way to salvage this is: "will I be in position to promote to gold as the month ends?" otherwise it's a broken market and traders are doubling down on speculation knowing there's a chance of mod intervention to save their dumb asses

@Stralor and fwiw I'm currently of the mind to find a way to resolve this against everyone's interests

@Stralor based on ai clarifications from their comments, seems like it will be resolving no?

@Jack1 I'm pretty sure the creator will try to resolve YES, and the clarifications make a case for both. Everything is just speculation on creator intent + mod intervention. Markets whose whole existence pivot on that annoy the hell out of me, so I'm just warning that this might go a way that'll be sour for everyone if I step in.

@Stralor N/A is the best way i think here

@Stralor tbf I bought in heavily after this clarification from the MC https://manifold.markets/SamwiseGamgee/will-i-be-promoted-to-mana-gold-by#9uzz907ja3 which would imply a NO resolution.

@prismatic this is why it should be n/a. creator gives confusing clarifications, market already incorrect all make it annoying to trade on

@SamwiseGamgee

My suggestion is, N/a the market.

Create a new market, Will I be in Gold League for the June season (simple, no Timezone/deadline problems)

Unrank the market so it doesn’t affect league placing

✅

This market should not be ranked

@Jack1 correct, as it is about leagues. fixed

Interesting amount of engagement in this comment section. Looks like there’s some confusion about how this will be resolved. Regardless of how and when the league closes if the requirements for being promoted to gold or met by the deadline in the description, the market is resolved yes. If not, then no.

@SamwiseGamgee nvm

nvm

@SamwiseGamgee nvm

@SamwiseGamgee nvm, i won!

@SamwiseGamgee This is not what the criteria have been for the entire month, and you are blatantly changing market resolution towards your YES position.

@mods weigh in?
@SamwiseGamgee pls sell and refund prismatic
@prismatic will refund if you want

@prismatic isn't this letter vs spirit? Although would prefer the market creator to sell and refund

upon further thought, i think this should be n/a. NO resolution is unprecedented, yes is unfair for prismatic and benefits MC, n/a fixes a market that doesn't make sense in the first place

@100Anonymous @SamwiseGamgee I will support an N/A. Ideally, this should resolve NO according to the criteria and the statement the MC made below in https://manifold.markets/SamwiseGamgee/will-i-be-promoted-to-mana-gold-by#9uzz907ja3.

The title is unambiguous: league promotions don't trigger instantaneously at month-end, so this can't resolve "yes." The new clarification contradicts that statement/is a substantively broader test that conveniently allows YES even though no promotion.

However, N/A does seem like the best path forward, considering the mana interest, and there has been historical evidence in the past of this.

@SamwiseGamgee but in the comments below, you said you’d have missed your deadline and would resolve no?

@prismatic Why is it ideally resolve YES? If we're treating the resolution criteria as stated, shouldn't this resolve NO?

@ZandaZhu oops edited

@Jack1 they referred to season 38+