Will Texas enact new a congressional map during its second 2025 special session?
3
1kṀ41
Sep 5
48%
chance

The Texas legislature is about to start its second special legislative session for the year 2025. Special sessions are up to 30 days long and the legislature can only work on items on the governor's special agenda during that time. As with this year's first special session, one item on the agenda is redrawing Texas's congressional map. The new map has already been drawn up and legislation will almost certainly be introduced to enact it. Democrats oppose the new map and prevented its passage during the first special session by fleeing the state and thus denying the Texas House a quorum. Democrats may use various tactics again - filibusters, fleeing the State to deny quorum, etc. - to prevent its passage.

Question will resolve YES if a redistricting bill filed during the second 2025 special session passes in the legislature and is signed into law by the governor. Question will resolve NO if those conditions are not met, even if redistricting is achieved in Texas some other way before November 2026 (e.g., governor calls a third special session, litigation produces new maps, etc.). 

Question closes September 5, about one week before I anticipate the session will end. I'll resolve or close sooner if the maps are enacted sooner or if the outcome becomes inevitable.

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