Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for at least one continuous 7-day period within 2025, an internationally recognized ceasefire agreement is in effect in Gaza, AND during that specific 7-day period, no Palestinian deaths in Gaza are attributed to Israeli military actions. Attributions of Palestinian deaths to Israeli military actions will be based on reports from the Gaza Ministry of Health, as relayed by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) or major reputable international news organizations (e.g., The Guardian, Al Jazeera).

The market will resolve to "No" if either:

1. For every continuous 7-day period in 2025 during which an internationally recognized ceasefire agreement is in effect in Gaza, at least one Palestinian death in Gaza is attributed to Israeli military actions by the aforementioned sources.

2. No internationally recognized ceasefire agreement, as defined above, is in effect for any continuous 7-day period within 2025. In this scenario, Israel is deemed unable to demonstrate going a week without violating a ceasefire because no such ceasefire was in place for the condition to be tested.

Background

The Israeli genocide of Palestinians in Gaza has been marked by significant violence and humanitarian crises. As of October 2025, tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 2023, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health and UN reports. Ceasefire agreements have been implemented in the past, often aiming for temporary cessations of hostilities or prisoner exchanges, but these have frequently been fragile and subject to violations. International bodies, including the UN, define a ceasefire violation as the failure to adhere to the terms of an agreement.

Considerations

Traders should consider the inherent difficulties in independently verifying casualty figures and attributing responsibility in a conflict zone like Gaza. The Gaza Health Ministry's data is widely cited by humanitarian groups, international bodies, and Israeli politicians privately (revealed in leaks).