Which Manifold for Good charity should I donate to?
Resolved
MULTI
May 12
M$145 bet
I am looking for convincing arguments about which charity to donate to through Manifold for Good.
Long Term Future Fund
Chosen 50%
12%
GiveDirectly: a simple, effective approach to alleviating poverty.
Chosen 50%
10%
JackC
Jack answered
GiveWell
30%

💬 Proven correct

jack

Jack bought M$1015 days ago

If you think it's important to invest in improving the long-term future, I'd suggest the Long Term Future Fund: https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future. It is very hard to directly compare this cause area to global development, but some surveys at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nws5pai9AB6dCQqxq/how-are-resources-in-effective-altruism-allocated-across indicate that the Effective Altruism community thinks global health/development is currently the most overweighted area of investment and the long-term future area is the most underweighted. This isn't to say that global health/development isn't important, but that it's relatively much better recognized, and that longtermist causes may be most neglected and therefore contributions there have strong potential impact.
Jack made M$63!
JackC
GiveWell
30%
jack

Jack bought M$1015 days ago

I'll start by talking a bit about GiveWell and/or its two top charities (Malaria Consortium, Against Malaria Foundation), since they're most directly comparable to GiveDirectly - they're all in the global health and development space, and have a very high degree of evidence and research. Generally, estimates of the effectiveness per dollar put malaria interventions at roughly 10x compared to direct cash transfers. See the row "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after supplemental intervention-level adjustments" in GiveWell's cost-effectiveness model spreadsheet https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models. The estimates vary depending on what you value and the assumptions you make, but this consensus appears fairly strong and it's quite well researched. For a description of what those charities do, I'll defer to GiveWell: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities Note that GiveDirectly is one of GiveWell's top charities, but there's a pretty large difference in estimated effectiveness between their #1 and #9 choices.
JackC
Long Term Future Fund
12%
jack

Jack bought M$1015 days ago

If you think it's important to invest in improving the long-term future, I'd suggest the Long Term Future Fund: https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future. It is very hard to directly compare this cause area to global development, but some surveys at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nws5pai9AB6dCQqxq/how-are-resources-in-effective-altruism-allocated-across indicate that the Effective Altruism community thinks global health/development is currently the most overweighted area of investment and the long-term future area is the most underweighted. This isn't to say that global health/development isn't important, but that it's relatively much better recognized, and that longtermist causes may be most neglected and therefore contributions there have strong potential impact.
jack

Jack is betting GiveWell 15 days ago

Also, I think there's a significant chance that work in this area will be important and impactful in the next few decades, not just the far future.
SamHarsimony
GiveDirectly: a simple, effective approach to alleviating poverty.
10%
Duncan

Duncan is betting GiveWell 12 days ago

Givewell includes GiveDirectly in it's top ten, so you should only give to GiveDirectly directly if you believe that you've done better research into all the other top charities on the list than has Givewell.
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