Which Manifold for Good charity should I donate to?
4
6
แน145resolved May 12
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%12%
Long Term Future Fund
50%10%
GiveDirectly: a simple, effective approach to alleviating poverty.
30%
GiveWell
I am looking for convincing arguments about which charity to donate to through Manifold for Good.
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answered
Long Term Future Fund
If you think it's important to invest in improving the long-term future, I'd suggest the Long Term Future Fund: https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future.
It is very hard to directly compare this cause area to global development, but some surveys at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nws5pai9AB6dCQqxq/how-are-resources-in-effective-altruism-allocated-across indicate that the Effective Altruism community thinks global health/development is currently the most overweighted area of investment and the long-term future area is the most underweighted. This isn't to say that global health/development isn't important, but that it's relatively much better recognized, and that longtermist causes may be most neglected and therefore contributions there have strong potential impact.
answered
GiveWell
I'll start by talking a bit about GiveWell and/or its two top charities (Malaria Consortium, Against Malaria Foundation), since they're most directly comparable to GiveDirectly - they're all in the global health and development space, and have a very high degree of evidence and research.
Generally, estimates of the effectiveness per dollar put malaria interventions at roughly 10x compared to direct cash transfers. See the row "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after supplemental intervention-level adjustments" in GiveWell's cost-effectiveness model spreadsheet https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models. The estimates vary depending on what you value and the assumptions you make, but this consensus appears fairly strong and it's quite well researched.
For a description of what those charities do, I'll defer to GiveWell: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities
Note that GiveDirectly is one of GiveWell's top charities, but there's a pretty large difference in estimated effectiveness between their #1 and #9 choices.