Mana auto-reload will automatically purchase more mana for you if you fall below a given balance threshold.
An example: You have a balance of Ṁ190 and turn on mana auto-reload. You place a bet for Ṁ100, and now your balance is Ṁ90. Since your balance is below your threshold of Ṁ100, Manifold will automatically purchase Ṁ1,000 mana for you at a cost of $10.
Resolves YES if 25% or more respondents vote Yes. Poll closes on April 2 at 11:59 PT. I won't trade in this market (outside an initial ante bet).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Oh man, I missed this market! This reminds me of so many Beeminder features that users were appalled by when framed one way and ended up loving when deployed another way. I think something somewhat like this is salvageable despite the poll results!
Maybe the key is that I don't want to auto-replenish my balance to keep it above an arbitrary threshold but I do want mana credit. I.e., I want the option to take the risk of letting my balance go negative if that means I can jump on more high-EV trades. And the price of that option is giving Manifold my credit card info so I can pay my debts if I do end up going negative. That's fair to Manifold and profit-maximizing for me.
@dreev why not just buy mana to finance your high EV trade addiction before you bet ? So much safer for you and manifold.
@Odoacre I guess I'm reinventing margin trading. But also there's just value in reducing friction. If I pre-authorize Manifold to charge my credit card as needed then I can just jump on any profitable trades I encounter without getting interrupted to replenish funds.
So maybe that's the way to sell a feature like this. Not to keep my balance above some threshold but just to remove the friction of adding funds. When I see a market probability p that I think should be q and the UI tells me that it costs $x to move it there, and I'm willing to pay that, I want to just pay it with no additional clicks.
Also it feels vaguely wasteful to have any cash balance at all. I want just-in-time funding of any trades I want to make.
@Odoacre maybe a limit on automatic purchases per week could help against that and other issues.
@MartinRandall you mean on my credit card ? Not sure my bank can tell if it's an automatic purchase or not. If you mean on manifold, I'd personally just buy mana up to my limit and not bother with auto top ups.