"Integrates Bluesky" means adding some sort of account-linking with Bluesky and showing a Bluesky feed somewhere prominently on Manifold (such as replacing the Explore tab or homepage).
"Active users in 3 months" means the the 7 day average of daily Active Users at the end of the 3 month period following Bluesky integration (even if we later remove the integration before the 3 month period is over). We currently report the DAU number on our stats page and will probably keep using the same methodology for current aspects of site usage. Scrolling through a Bluesky feed will definitely count toward the definition of active user; other new social actions might as well.
Resolves N/A if Bluesky is not integrated before the end of 2025.
1,000People are also trading
Why a Bluesky integration could be good:
Content cross-pollination: Manifold users get to see more interesting content from off platform, and Bluesky users get more interesting content from Manifold, which in turn makes Manifold users more likely to invest more time in creating content because it has wider reach and less platform lock-in, etc.
User growth: We can probably pull some users away from the Bluesky app to Manifold
Better discovery for markets / native support for trading
Better epistemic tooling: Manifold users have a concrete track record of their predictive prowess. We can surface this to help users determine how seriously they should take certain tweets / users. We can also surface markets in response to specific tweets to serve as our own form of Community Notes.
Mana: What does a social network look like with an in-game currency? Using mana we can support things like tipping, rewarding users for good posts, fining users for spam, etc.
Why it could be bad:
Bad vibes: The current Bluesky userbase has an unusually large concentration of annoying and insufferable people. Some are cool, but the reputation of the platform as a whole today is honestly not great. Integrating with Bluesky is a bet that the platform will have broader appeal in the future.
Too early: Bluesky is still an early stage startup. It could just die. It may be unwise to hitch our wagon to them at their current size.
Brand dilution: It shifts the focus away from markets and potentially weakens the Manifold brand.
Elon mad: We could be shadowbanned and deboosted on Twitter, which is one of our larger growth channels
@andri Example discourse from my feed today https://bsky.app/profile/thoc.bsky.social/post/3lq4p57vzik2y
@journcy So your example for "large concentration of annoying and insufferable people" is a Bluesky thread where everyone complains about one annoying person? Or are the complainers the insufferable ones?
@andri More specifically to Manifold, Bluesky has many users who are hostile towards all prediction markets, as well as a large contingent of AI deniers. I suspect any Manifold-adjacent posts that went viral on the platform could trigger flame wars, and although there are definitely Bluesky users who would fit in here and enjoy trading, the average user here and the average user there would not get along.